The UK van market hit a sharp slowdown in October, with registrations dropping 15.1% year-on-year to 22,896 units, according to the latest SMMT figures. It follows a far stronger September, when electric van uptake hit an all-time high and overall volumes dipped only slightly.
Confidence clearly remains fragile. Year-to-date registrations are now down 10.2% at 264,160 units, and the SMMT says many fleets are delaying renewals while they wait for clarity from the 26 November Budget, particularly around capital allowances and future tax treatment of LCVs.
Every major segment took a hit. Large vans (2.5–3.5 tonnes) fell 7%, medium vans tumbled 41%, and small vans slipped 23%. Pickups — which saw a rush of deliveries last month before HMRC’s benefit-in-kind rule change — dropped 20.2% to 2,143 units, the first clear sign of the new tax treatment biting.
The only growth came from specialist 4x4s, up 88%, although at 440 registrations, the volumes are still small.
After more than a year of uninterrupted increases, electric vans also lost momentum. Battery-electric registrations dipped 5.8% to 2,132 units, following September’s record 4,262 deliveries. Even so, electric vans remain 47% up year-to-date at 24,250 units.
The BEV market share now sits at 9.1%, which is well short of the 16% target required under the government’s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate for 2025.
SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes said the pullback wasn’t a surprise in the current climate, but stressed that growth needs to resume quickly if manufacturers are to meet looming targets.
“While October’s decline is unsurprising amid the intense economic pressure facing businesses, returning the van market to growth is essential – especially to underpin new investment in zero emission models,” said Hawes. “Accelerating infrastructure rollout and grid connections will help ensure government targets are not just an aspiration but actually deliverable for manufacturers and operators alike.”
Others see October as more of a wobble than a reversal. Flexis UK’s Matt Hawkins says the longer-term trend is still positive, with the 47.9% year-on-year growth in new eLCV registrations “a promising sign of a momentum shift towards zero-emission commercial vehicles.”
Hawkins added that with “the right infrastructure, supportive policies and continued innovation, businesses are realising that the transition to electric vans is not only achievable, but a real business advantage.”
Looking ahead, the SMMT expects 2025 to end on around 321,000 LCV registrations, down 8.7% on the previous year. A modest recovery is forecast for 2026, with electric vans set to take a gradually increasing share, though still lagging behind the pace required by the ZEV Mandate.
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